Grampian Weather Services
"The weather ... as forecast"
Thunderstorms Forecast: Indices
Boyden Index
Criteria:
> 94: TS possible
Best used for frontal or trough thunderstorms during winter season
Vertical Totals Index
Criteria:
> 28: strong potential for TS
Cross Totals Index
Criteria:
< 18: weak potential for TS
18 to 19: moderate potential for TS
20 to 21: strong potential for TS
22 to 23: weak potential for severe TS
24 to 25: moderate potential for severe TS
>25: strong potential for SEV TS (hvy shwr & TN >29)
S-Index
Criteria:
<39: no TS (89%)
41 to 45: TS possible (42%)
>46: TS likely (75%)
Showalter Index
Criteria:
> 2: no TS
=< 2: TS
Parcel lifted from 850 hPa. Index doesn't work well if a frontal surface or inversion is present between 850 hPa and 500 hPa.
Bradbury Index
Criteria:
< -2: TS likely in summer
< +3: TS likely in winter
< +3: TS likely in all seasons with cyclonic 500 hPa pattern
Rackliff Index
Criteria:
25: showers possible
25 to 29: showers with TS possible
> 30: TS likely
Best used for air mass thunderstorms (no dynamical triggering mechanism).
Modified Jefferson Index
Criteria:
> 27: TS likely if in polar air mass
> 30: TS if other air masses
Best used for air mass thunderstorms (no dynamical triggering mechanism).
Bulk Richardson Number (BRN): proportional to CAPE and inversely proportional to shear
Very high BRN values: the shear is too weak to stop the outflow pool of cold (downdraught) air moving quickly away from the parent updraught: new cells may form as the gravity current propagates downstream, but usually well away from the parent - and distinct from it. Also, as the updraught is quasi-zero sheared vertically, the rain shaft falls into a saturated environment (little or no evaporation possible), and there is no potential for a substantial downdraught.
Mderate BRN values: the shear element (especially speed shear) now plays a crucial part in skewing the updraught, tilting the growing cloudy environment, allowing some or all of the precipitation shaft to fall into unsaturated air - evaporative cooling (plus precipitation drag) will generate a cold downdraught - the drier the air, the greater the potential for accelerating cold/gravity current flow. As the downdraught hits the surface, it splays out, meeting environmental inflow and generating new cells away from (but close by) the parent cell - this is the basis of the multi-cell thunderstorm.
Low BRN values (but NOT quasi-zero numbers .. see below): Supercell storms may occur (other factors being right). The shear is now strong (and composed of both speed and significant directional components - this latter is most important), and the new/growing cell effectively forms alongside or even within the environment of the 'parent', the whole forming a steady-state system. The situation is complex though and rotation of the developing storm must be present - this is thought to be due to advection (and significant distortion / stretching) of low-level horizontal vorticity into the updraught of the storm environment, but knowledge here is still incomplete, though growing. (It is here that Helicity comes into play .... see elsewhere).
Very low BRN values: the shear is too strong against very weak CAPE: the developing convective (cloudy) towers are ripped apart and are generally too ill-organised for persistent self-sustaining Cb development. However, note that within the environment of a tropical storm, a low BRN may be associated with organised convective 'streets'.
Bulk richardson Number
Criteria:
< 10: low risk of severe TS
> 35: low risk for supercells, but risk for single cells or multicells
15 to 50: risk for supercells (upper teens optimal)
Works best with CAPE between 1500 and 3500 J/kg.


Severe Weather Threat Index
Criteria:
< 300: weak potential for severe TS
> 300: moderate potential for severe TS
> 500: high potential for severe TS
Add way to calculate S.
Thompson Index
Criteria:
25 to 34: potential of TS
35 to 39: potential of TS approaching SEV
=> 40: potential of severe TS
Severe Thunderstorm Index
Criteria:
2.5 to 3.5: minor severe event
1.5 to 2.5: major severe event
<1.5: tornadic event