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Technical Blog - Short Meteo Lessons

** LESSON: What do "chance", "likely" or "developing" mean? **

When communicating uncertainty to the public, a set terminology is to be used but what does is actually mean?

For example in the case of precipitation:

- "Low" (most areas staying dry) carries a 10% probability of occurrence - "Slight chance" (isolated) carries a 20% probability - "Chance" (scattered: hit or miss) carries a 30 to 50% probability - "Likely" (numerous: more hit than miss) carries a 60 to 70% probability - "Developing" (widespread: confidence is high for the phenomenon to happen) carries a 80 to 100% probability

The vocabulary used by forecasters is accurate but its knowledge needs to be shared by the public.

#probability #uncertainty #chance #developing #likely

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