Aurora Borealis Forecast

(courtesy of )

AuroraWatch UK allows you to monitor geomagnetic activity in real time, and will let you know when aurora may be visible from the UK.

 

Colours legend:

 

Green: No significant activity

Aurora is unlikey to be seen from anywhere in the UK.

 

Yellow: Minor geomagnetic activity

Aurora is unlikely to be visible from the UK except perhaps the extreme north of Scotland.

 

Amber (Amber alert): Possible aurora

Aurora is likely to be visible from Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland.

 

Red (Red alert): Aurora likely

It is likely that aurora will be visible from everywhere in the UK.

The Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model which provides a 30-40 minute forecast on the location and probability of auroral displays in the polar regions.

 

This model is driven by real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field information from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite.

 

The images show both where the aurora is most likely to be observed as well as how bright it might be. 

 

The model also calculates a globally integrated total energy deposition in gigaWatts (GW). This is referred to as the Hemispheric Power and ranges from 5 to 150 GW.

 

Below about 20: little or no aurora observable.

 

Between 20 and 50: need to be near the aurora to see it.

 

Between 50 and 100: aurora quite observable with lots of activity and motion across the sky.

 

Above 100: very significant geomagnetic storm, aurora seen from hundreds of miles away.

(courtesy of )

Explanation:

 

he more the dials are in the red, the more likely aurora will be visible. However, dials in the yellow can still produce visible activity from Aberdeen

 

The graph shows the North-South (H) component of the magnetic field as a black line, with a typical quiet day shown in blue. The difference between the current field and a quiet day is plotted as a colour-coded bar chart: green for quiet, orange for active and red for stormy. Times are in UT.